Victoria Election Map

Totals are the simulation's median outcome. Each seat is colored by that seat's own most likely winner, so counting seats won't add up to the totals above — see the range under each card.

2026 Projection methodology: our own poll-of-polls for Victorian state voting intention (see the Polling page) evaluated now, versus the actual 2022 state election result, gives a swing for Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and One Nation. That swing is applied to each seat's actual 2022 primary vote (not just its top-two margin) in log-odds space, damped for any seat that's already an outlier from the statewide average so a big swing doesn't overreact in a seat that's already unusually strong or weak for a party, then calibrated back so the group average matches the real current polling level. The top two contenders are recalculated from the projected primaries — so a surging party can newly break into contention in a seat instead of being locked out of a pairing it wasn't part of in 2022 — and the remaining parties' votes are distributed as preferences using the same flow model as the federal Projection Simulator. Victoria only has one statewide poll series, not the regional breakdowns the federal model blends against, so every seat calibrates to the same single statewide figure for each party rather than a state+region blend — but each seat's own swingtoward that figure is scaled by a seat classification (tier and finer sub-tier, e.g. "Nationals heartland / ag" or "migrant-heavy growth corridor") that lets a party move further in seats favourable to it and less in seats that aren't, rather than every seat taking an identical swing. That classification is a disclosed, adjustable judgement call, not measured data. One Nation specifically has a real, disclosed limitation: almost no seat recorded a real 2022 primary vote for them (Bendigo East, where they did run and scored 5.7%, is the one exception), so everywhere else their "swing" is really the current statewide figure scaled directly by that same seat classification, rather than a swing from a real baseline. Genuinely National-held seats (where a separate National candidate ran alongside, not instead of, a Liberal one) use their own real, separately-tracked primary vote rather than a combined Coalition figure.