Bean

The line traces Bean's real 2025 primary vote forward using the polling trend for inner-metropolitan seats nationally — not a poll of this seat specifically, and that category has only around 28 polls tracked over 14 months across every seat of its kind in the country, so read the shape of the line as directional, not a precise forecast. ACT has no dedicated state-level polling of its own (too few seats for a pollster to break out), so unlike most other states, Bean's actual projection number really is classification-only, same as this chart's shape. There's only one projection number for Bean, this is just showing how the polling got there. There's no inner-metropolitan-seat polling for a specific independent or Community Strong Australia candidate the way there is for the four parties, so the Price (Independent) line is a straight glide from Bean's 2025 primary vote to its 2028 projection, not a poll trend.

Two-candidate-preferred, 2028 projection — the top two contenders are recalculated from the projected primary votes above (so a surging party can break into contention even if it wasn't one of the top two last election), and every other party's vote is distributed between them as preferences using standard flow assumptions, not seat-specific sourced preference data. The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives national polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.