Gilmore

The line traces Gilmore's real 2025 primary vote forward using the polling trend for rural seats nationally — not a poll of this seat specifically, and that category has only around 28 polls tracked over 14 months across every seat of its kind in the country, so read the shape of the line as directional, not a precise forecast. The actual 2028 projection number (shown at the end of the line, in the table below, and everywhere else on the site) also blends in NSW's own state-level polling 50/50 with this classification trend — the chart just doesn't visualize that second component, so the end of the line glides onto the real, state-blended number over its final stretch rather than matching the classification-only shape exactly. There's only one projection number for Gilmore, this is just showing how the polling got there.

Two-candidate-preferred, 2028 projection — the top two contenders are recalculated from the projected primary votes above (so a surging party can break into contention even if it wasn't one of the top two last election), and every other party's vote is distributed between them as preferences using standard flow assumptions, not seat-specific sourced preference data. Genuine toss-up: a single snapshot count of today's polling would have Coalition (Liberal) narrowly ahead instead (a 8.1% margin). The split shown above is the median result from just the simulated outcomes where Labor actually wins, out of a 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation built on the same real preference-flow model.