McMahon

The line traces McMahon's real 2025 primary vote forward using the polling trend for outer-metropolitan seats nationally — not a poll of this seat specifically, and that category has only around 28 polls tracked over 14 months across every seat of its kind in the country, so read the shape of the line as directional, not a precise forecast. The actual 2028 projection number (shown at the end of the line, in the table below, and everywhere else on the site) also blends in NSW's own state-level polling 50/50 with this classification trend — the chart just doesn't visualize that second component, so the end of the line glides onto the real, state-blended number over its final stretch rather than matching the classification-only shape exactly. There's only one projection number for McMahon, this is just showing how the polling got there.

Two-candidate-preferred, 2028 projection — the top two contenders are recalculated from the projected primary votes above (so a surging party can break into contention even if it wasn't one of the top two last election), and every other party's vote is distributed between them as preferences using standard flow assumptions, not seat-specific sourced preference data. The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives national polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.