Solomon

The line traces Solomon's real 2025 primary vote forward using the polling trend for inner-metropolitan seats nationally — not a poll of this seat specifically, and that category has only around 28 polls tracked over 14 months across every seat of its kind in the country, so read the shape of the line as directional, not a precise forecast. NT has no dedicated state-level polling of its own (too few seats for a pollster to break out), so unlike most other states, Solomon's actual projection number really is classification-only, same as this chart's shape. There's only one projection number for Solomon, this is just showing how the polling got there.

Two-candidate-preferred, 2028 projection — the top two contenders are recalculated from the projected primary votes above (so a surging party can break into contention even if it wasn't one of the top two last election), and every other party's vote is distributed between them as preferences using standard flow assumptions, not seat-specific sourced preference data. Genuine toss-up: a single snapshot count of today's polling would have One Nation narrowly ahead instead (a 5.9% margin). The split shown above is the median result from just the simulated outcomes where Labor actually wins, out of a 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation built on the same real preference-flow model.