Victorian state district · Southern Metropolitan
Ashwood
Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.
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Next Election (Projected)
Current result
Coalition (Liberal) wins in 66% of simulations
The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.
LIB
37.0%
Coalition (Liberal)Projected winner
ALP
29.7%
Labor
GRN
18.0%
Greens
ONP
11.9%
One Nation
OTH
3.4%
Other
Get to know the district
Ashwood
Population
80,567
Median age
39
Median household income
$2172/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
0%
Classification
Outer Melbourne
Religion
All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.
Housing
Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $457/week; typical mortgage payment is $613/week.
Past Results | Ashwood
| 2022 | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| ALP | 40.3% | 29.7% |
| LIB | 37.2% | 37.0% |
| GRN | 14.8% | 18.0% |
| ONP | — | 11.9% |
| Other | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| Independent | 2.6% | — |
Latest update: 2 October 2026