Victorian state district · South-Eastern Metropolitan
Berwick
Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.
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Next Election (Projected)
Current result
Coalition (Liberal) wins in 90% of simulations
The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.
LIB
38.7%
Coalition (Liberal)Projected winner
ONP
26.4%
One Nation
ALP
20.2%
Labor
GRN
10.7%
Greens
OTH
4.0%
Other
Get to know the district
Berwick
Population
81,414
Median age
35
Median household income
$2212/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
1%
Classification
Outer Melbourne
Religion
All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.
Housing
Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $410/week; typical mortgage payment is $500/week.
Past Results | Berwick
| 2022 | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| ALP | 35.8% | 20.2% |
| LIB | 45.2% | 38.7% |
| GRN | 9.7% | 10.7% |
| ONP | — | 26.4% |
| Other | 9.2% | 4.0% |
Latest update: 2 October 2026