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Victorian state district · South-Eastern Metropolitan

Clarinda

Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.

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Next Election (Projected)

Current result

Labor wins in 57% of simulations
Labor 51.7%
One Nation 48.3%

The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.

ALP
33.3%
LaborProjected winner
ONP
25.3%
One Nation
LIB
24.8%
Coalition (Liberal)
GRN
10.3%
Greens
OTH
6.3%
Other
Get to know the district

Clarinda

6.2%
Unemployment rate
1.2pt above Victoria's 5% average
Population
73,588
Median age
40
Median household income
$1714/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
0%
Classification
Outer Melbourne

Ancestry

Asian
25%
European
24%
Australian
14%

People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.

Language spoken at home

English only
39%
Other languages
36%
Mandarin
8%
Greek
8%
Vietnamese
7%
Cantonese
3%

Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.

Religion

No Religion
29%
Christian
29%
Buddhism
10%
Hinduism
8%

All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.

Education (highest level attained)

High School
37%
University Educated
32%
TAFE Educated
18%

People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.

Housing

Owned (No Mortgage)
38%
Owned (Active Mortgage)
35%
Renting
25%

Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $381/week; typical mortgage payment is $462/week.

Occupation

White collar
56%
Blue collar
42%

Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.

Past Results | Clarinda

2022Projection
ALP45.5%33.3%
LIB28.6%24.8%
GRN7.9%10.3%
ONP—25.3%
Independent10.6%—
Other7.4%6.3%

Latest update: 2 October 2026