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Victorian state district · Northern Metropolitan

Essendon

Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.

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Next Election (Projected)

Current result

Labor wins in 46% of simulations
Labor 51.7%
Coalition (Liberal) 48.3%

The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.

ALP
24.5%
LaborProjected winner
LIB
21.9%
Coalition (Liberal)
GRN
16.8%
Greens
ONP
16.4%
One Nation
IND
13.6%
Independent
OTH
6.8%
Other
Get to know the district

Essendon

4.6%
Unemployment rate
0.4pt below Victoria's 5% average
Population
70,088
Median age
37
Median household income
$2054/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
1%
Classification
Inner Melbourne

Ancestry

European
62%
Australian
24%

People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.

Language spoken at home

English only
70%
Other languages
20%
Italian
4%
Greek
2%
Vietnamese
2%
Mandarin
2%

Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.

Religion

Christian
40%
No Religion
37%

All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.

Education (highest level attained)

University Educated
43%
High School
30%
TAFE Educated
19%

People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.

Housing

Renting
39%
Owned (Active Mortgage)
30%
Owned (No Mortgage)
29%

Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $370/week; typical mortgage payment is $508/week.

Occupation

White collar
73%
Blue collar
25%

Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.

Past Results | Essendon

2022Projection
ALP41.1%24.5%
LIB29.5%21.9%
GRN15.1%16.8%
ONP—16.4%
Other14.3%6.8%
Independent—13.6%

Latest update: 2 October 2026