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Victorian state district · South-Eastern Metropolitan

Frankston

Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.

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Next Election (Projected)

Current result

Coalition (Liberal) wins in 31% of simulations
Coalition (Liberal) 50.2%
Labor 49.8%

The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.

ALP
28.7%
Labor
LIB
25.2%
Coalition (Liberal)Projected winner
ONP
23.7%
One Nation
GRN
14.5%
Greens
OTH
7.9%
Other
Get to know the district

Frankston

5.2%
Unemployment rate
0.2pt above Victoria's 5% average
Population
68,472
Median age
40
Median household income
$1451/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
2%
Classification
Outer Melbourne

Ancestry

European
67%
Australian
34%

People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.

Language spoken at home

English only
82%
Other languages
14%
Mandarin
1%
Greek
1%
Russian
1%
Malayalam
1%

Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.

Religion

No Religion
51%
Christian
28%

All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.

Education (highest level attained)

High School
38%
TAFE Educated
30%
University Educated
20%

People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.

Housing

Owned (Active Mortgage)
34%
Renting
34%
Owned (No Mortgage)
28%

Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $345/week; typical mortgage payment is $415/week.

Occupation

White collar
54%
Blue collar
44%

Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.

Past Results | Frankston

2022Projection
ALP41.6%28.7%
LIB29.4%25.2%
GRN12.7%14.5%
ONP—23.7%
Other15.4%7.9%
Independent0.9%—

Latest update: 2 October 2026