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Victorian state district · Eastern Victoria

Gippsland South

Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.

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Next Election (Projected)

Current result

Coalition (National) wins in 79% of simulations
Coalition (National) 56.7%
One Nation 43.3%

The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.

NAT
42.0%
Coalition (National)Projected winner
ONP
34.9%
One Nation
GRN
9.7%
Greens
ALP
9.6%
Labor
OTH
3.8%
Other
Get to know the district

Gippsland South

4.1%
Unemployment rate
0.9pt below Victoria's 5% average
Population
65,853
Median age
47
Median household income
$1273/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
2%
Classification
Rural

Ancestry

European
69%
Australian
41%

People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.

Language spoken at home

English only
88%
Other languages
11%
Italian
0%
Mandarin
0%
German
0%
Malayalam
0%

Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.

Religion

No Religion
48%
Christian
32%

All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.

Education (highest level attained)

High School
42%
TAFE Educated
30%
University Educated
15%

People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.

Housing

Owned (No Mortgage)
45%
Owned (Active Mortgage)
33%
Renting
18%

Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $260/week; typical mortgage payment is $300/week.

Occupation

White collar
53%
Blue collar
45%

Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.

Past Results | Gippsland South

2022Projection
ALP23.4%9.6%
LIB——
GRN8.3%9.7%
ONP—34.9%
Coalition (National)53.3%42.0%
Other9.3%3.8%
Independent5.7%—

Latest update: 2 October 2026