Victorian state district · Northern Metropolitan
Greenvale
Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.
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Next Election (Projected)
Current result
Coalition (Liberal) wins in 37% of simulations
The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.
ALP
30.5%
Labor
LIB
25.5%
Coalition (Liberal)Projected winner
ONP
22.1%
One Nation
OTH
13.6%
Other
GRN
8.3%
Greens
Get to know the district
Greenvale
Population
77,159
Median age
34
Median household income
$1728/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
1%
Classification
Outer Melbourne
Religion
All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.
Housing
Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $370/week; typical mortgage payment is $411/week.
Past Results | Greenvale
| 2022 | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| ALP | 41.5% | 30.5% |
| LIB | 25.4% | 25.5% |
| GRN | 5.8% | 8.3% |
| ONP | — | 22.1% |
| Other | 20.9% | 13.6% |
| Independent | 6.4% | — |
Latest update: 2 October 2026