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Victorian state district · Eastern Victoria

Narracan

Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.

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Next Election (Projected)

Current result

Coalition (Liberal) wins in 70% of simulations
Coalition (Liberal) 53.6%
One Nation 46.4%

The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.

LIB
37.0%
Coalition (Liberal)Projected winner
ONP
32.9%
One Nation
ALP
11.4%
Labor
OTH
9.6%
Other
GRN
9.1%
Greens
Get to know the district

Narracan

4.3%
Unemployment rate
0.7pt below Victoria's 5% average
Population
67,344
Median age
41
Median household income
$1541/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
1%
Classification
Provincial

Ancestry

European
68%
Australian
42%

People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.

Language spoken at home

English only
89%
Other languages
10%
Mandarin
0%
Italian
0%
German
0%
Punjabi
0%

Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.

Religion

No Religion
47%
Christian
32%

All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.

Education (highest level attained)

High School
41%
TAFE Educated
32%
University Educated
15%

People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.

Housing

Owned (Active Mortgage)
40%
Owned (No Mortgage)
39%
Renting
18%

Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $320/week; typical mortgage payment is $381/week.

Occupation

White collar
50%
Blue collar
48%

Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.

Past Results | Narracan

2022Projection
ALP—11.4%
LIB45.0%37.0%
GRN11.1%9.1%
ONP6.0%32.9%
Other22.0%9.6%
Independent15.9%—

Latest update: 2 October 2026