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Victorian state district · Eastern Victoria

Nepean

Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.

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Next Election (Projected)

Current result

Coalition (Liberal) wins in 96% of simulations
Coalition (Liberal) 59.0%
One Nation 41.0%

The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.

LIB
41.9%
Coalition (Liberal)Projected winner
ONP
24.6%
One Nation
ALP
19.4%
Labor
GRN
10.0%
Greens
OTH
4.1%
Other
Get to know the district

Nepean

3.3%
Unemployment rate
1.7pt below Victoria's 5% average
Population
62,149
Median age
53
Median household income
$1353/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
1%
Classification
Provincial

Ancestry

European
74%
Australian
36%

People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.

Language spoken at home

English only
87%
Other languages
10%
Italian
1%
Greek
1%
German
0%
Spanish
0%

Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.

Religion

No Religion
47%
Christian
33%

All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.

Education (highest level attained)

High School
37%
TAFE Educated
29%
University Educated
21%

People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.

Housing

Owned (No Mortgage)
45%
Owned (Active Mortgage)
28%
Renting
22%

Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $370/week; typical mortgage payment is $430/week.

Occupation

White collar
57%
Blue collar
41%

Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.

Past Results | Nepean

2022Projection
ALP32.6%19.4%
LIB48.1%41.9%
GRN8.8%10.0%
ONP—24.6%
Other8.0%4.1%
Independent2.5%—

Latest update: 2 October 2026