Victorian state district · Eastern Victoria
Pakenham
Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.
Back to Victoria Election Map
Next Election (Projected)
Current result
Coalition (Liberal) wins in 48% of simulations
The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.
ONP
31.8%
One Nation
LIB
27.5%
Coalition (Liberal)Projected winner
ALP
20.4%
Labor
OTH
10.8%
Other
GRN
9.5%
Greens
Get to know the district
Pakenham
Population
76,217
Median age
32
Median household income
$1806/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
1%
Classification
Outer Melbourne
Religion
All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.
Housing
Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $361/week; typical mortgage payment is $421/week.
Past Results | Pakenham
| 2022 | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| ALP | 33.8% | 20.4% |
| LIB | 32.4% | 27.5% |
| GRN | 6.6% | 9.5% |
| ONP | 3.4% | 31.8% |
| Other | 15.0% | 10.8% |
| Independent | 8.7% | — |
Latest update: 2 October 2026