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Victorian state district · Northern Metropolitan

Pascoe Vale

Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.

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Next Election (Projected)

Current result

Labor wins in 72% of simulations
Labor 53.9%
Greens 46.1%

The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.

ALP
30.5%
LaborProjected winner
GRN
26.7%
Greens
LIB
19.2%
Coalition (Liberal)
ONP
12.3%
One Nation
OTH
11.3%
Other
Get to know the district

Pascoe Vale

5%
Unemployment rate
Same as Victoria's 5% average
Population
68,954
Median age
37
Median household income
$2015/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
1%
Classification
Outer Melbourne

Ancestry

European
52%
Australian
21%

People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.

Language spoken at home

English only
58%
Other languages
24%
Italian
6%
Arabic
5%
Greek
4%
Nepali
3%

Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.

Religion

No Religion
34%
Christian
33%
Islam
10%

All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.

Education (highest level attained)

University Educated
36%
High School
33%
TAFE Educated
21%

People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.

Housing

Renting
34%
Owned (Active Mortgage)
33%
Owned (No Mortgage)
30%

Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $400/week; typical mortgage payment is $500/week.

Occupation

White collar
64%
Blue collar
34%

Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.

Past Results | Pascoe Vale

2022Projection
ALP38.8%30.5%
LIB21.0%19.2%
GRN22.4%26.7%
ONP—12.3%
Other17.8%11.3%

Latest update: 2 October 2026