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Victorian state district · South-Eastern Metropolitan

Rowville

Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.

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Next Election (Projected)

Current result

Coalition (Liberal) wins in 97% of simulations
Coalition (Liberal) 59.7%
Labor 40.3%

The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.

LIB
39.9%
Coalition (Liberal)Projected winner
ALP
24.4%
Labor
ONP
19.8%
One Nation
GRN
10.2%
Greens
OTH
5.7%
Other
Get to know the district

Rowville

4.4%
Unemployment rate
0.6pt below Victoria's 5% average
Population
71,156
Median age
41
Median household income
$2115/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
1%
Classification
Outer Melbourne

Ancestry

European
42%
Australian
27%
Asian
13%

People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.

Language spoken at home

English only
68%
Other languages
19%
Mandarin
6%
Cantonese
3%
Sinhalese
2%
Greek
1%

Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.

Religion

No Religion
37%
Christian
31%
Buddhism
5%

All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.

Education (highest level attained)

High School
38%
University Educated
28%
TAFE Educated
27%

People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.

Housing

Owned (Active Mortgage)
42%
Owned (No Mortgage)
36%
Renting
17%

Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $435/week; typical mortgage payment is $486/week.

Occupation

White collar
62%
Blue collar
36%

Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.

Past Results | Rowville

2022Projection
ALP32.9%24.4%
LIB40.6%39.9%
GRN7.0%10.2%
ONP—19.8%
Independent12.1%—
Other7.4%5.7%

Latest update: 2 October 2026