Tarneit
Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.
Current result
The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.
Tarneit
Ancestry
People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.
Language spoken at home
Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.
Religion
All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.
Education (highest level attained)
People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.
Housing
Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $361/week; typical mortgage payment is $424/week.
Occupation
Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.
Past Results | Tarneit
| 2022 | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| ALP | 46.6% | 33.8% |
| LIB | 26.8% | 21.2% |
| GRN | 7.4% | 9.0% |
| ONP | — | 26.2% |
| Other | 19.3% | 9.8% |
Latest update: 2 October 2026