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Victorian state district · Northern Metropolitan

Thomastown

Results and projection for this Legislative Assembly district.

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Next Election (Projected)

Current result

Labor wins in 79% of simulations
Labor 54.0%
One Nation 46.0%

The win-probability figure above comes from a separate 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation (see the Victoria Election Map page for methodology) built on this same TCP margin — it's how often that margin survives statewide polling uncertainty plus seat-level noise, not a different projection.

ALP
37.3%
LaborProjected winner
ONP
27.0%
One Nation
LIB
17.9%
Coalition (Liberal)
OTH
9.5%
Other
GRN
8.3%
Greens
Get to know the district

Thomastown

7%
Unemployment rate
2.0pt above Victoria's 5% average
Population
77,695
Median age
35
Median household income
$1521/wk
Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander
1%
Classification
Outer Melbourne

Ancestry

European
30%
Australian
12%
Asian
10%

People could report up to two ancestries. Grouped by region from the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller regions outside that list aren't counted.

Language spoken at home

Other languages
40%
English only
32%
Arabic
9%
Punjabi
7%
Macedonian
6%
Italian
6%

Language spoken most often at home. "Other languages" is everyone outside the top responses shown.

Religion

Christian
35%
Islam
15%
No Religion
15%
Hinduism
8%

All people. Christian combines denominations in the ABS's own top-5 responses for this seat — smaller denominations outside that list aren't counted. Other faiths shown individually.

Education (highest level attained)

High School
44%
University Educated
22%
TAFE Educated
22%

People aged 15+. University Educated: Bachelor degree or higher. TAFE Educated: Certificate or Diploma. High School: no further qualification.

Housing

Owned (Active Mortgage)
39%
Owned (No Mortgage)
31%
Renting
28%

Most homes here are a separate house. Typical rent is $361/week; typical mortgage payment is $438/week.

Occupation

Blue collar
50%
White collar
47%

Employed people (15+). White collar: Managers, Professionals, Clerical & Administrative, Sales. Blue collar: Trades, Community & Personal Service, Machinery Operators, Labourers.

Past Results | Thomastown

2022Projection
ALP51.7%37.3%
LIB24.0%17.9%
GRN6.8%8.3%
ONP—27.0%
Other17.5%9.5%

Latest update: 2 October 2026